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Everywhere I go people tell
me China and India are going to blow by us in the coming decades. They’ve
got the hunger. They’ve got the people. They’ve got the future. We’re a
tired old power, destined to fade back to the second tier of nations, like
Britain did in the 20th century.
This sentiment is everywhere — except in the evidence. The facts and
figures tell a different story.
Has the United States lost its vitality? No. Americans remain the hardest
working people on the face of the earth and the most productive. As William
W. Lewis, the founding director of the McKinsey Global Institute, wrote,
“The United States is the productivity leader in virtually every industry.”
Productivity rates are surging faster now than they did even in the 1990s.
Has the United States stopped investing in the future? No. The United States
accounts for roughly 40 percent of the world’s R&D spending.
More money was invested in research and development in this country than in
the other G-7 nations combined.
Is the United States becoming a less important player in the world economy?
Not yet. In 1971, the U.S. economy accounted for 30.52 percent of the
world’s GDP Since then, we’ve seen the rise of Japan, China, India and the
Asian tigers. The United States now accounts for 30.74 percent of world GDP,
a slightly higher figure.
What about the shortage of scientists and engineers? Vastly overblown.
According to Duke School of Engineering researchers, the United States
produces more engineers per capita than China or India. According to The
Wall Street Journal, firms with engineering openings find themselves flooded
with resumes. Unemployment rates for scientists and engineers are no lower
than for other professions, and in some specialties, such as electrical
engineering, they are notably higher.
Michael Teitelbaum of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation told The Wall Street
Journal last November, “No one I know who has looked at the data with an
open mind has been able to find any sign of a current shortage.” The GAO,
the RAND Corp. and many other researchers have picked apart the quickie
studies that warn of a science and engineering gap. “We did not find
evidence that such shortages have existed at least since 1990, nor that they
are on the horizon,” the RAND report concluded.
What about America’s lamentable education system? Well, it’s true we do a
mediocre job of educating people from age 0 to 18, even though we spend by
far more per pupil than any other nation on earth. But we do an outstanding
job of training people from ages 18 to 65.
At least 22 out of the top 30 universities in the world are American. More
foreign students come to American universities now than before 9/11.
More important, the American workplace is so competitive, companies are
compelled to promote lifelong learning. A U.N. report this year ranked the
United States third in the world in ease of doing business, after New
Zealand and Singapore. The United States has the second most competitive
economy on earth, after Finland, according the latest Global Competitiveness
Report. As Michael Porter of Harvard told The National Journal, “The U.S. is
second to none in terms of innovation and an innovative environment.” What
about partisan gridlock and our dysfunctional political system? Well,
entitlement debt remains the biggest threat to the country’s well-being, but
in one area vital to the country’s future posterity, we have reached a
beneficent consensus. American liberals have given up on industrial policy,
and American conservatives now embrace an aggressive federal role for basic
research.
Ford and GM totter and almost nobody suggests using public money to prop
them up. On the other hand, President Bush, reputed to be hostile to
science, has increased the federal scientific research budget by 50 percent
since taking office, to $137 billion annually. Sens. Lamar Alexander and
Jeff Bingaman have proposed excellent legislation that would double the R&D
tax credit and create a Darpa-style lab in the Department of Energy,
devoting $9 billion for scientific research and education. That bill has 60
co-sponsors, 30 Democrats and 30 Republicans.
Recent polling suggests that people in Afghanistan and Iraq are more
optimistic about their nations’ futures than people in the United States.
That’s just crazy, even given our problems with health care, growing
inequality and such. America’s problem over the next 50 years will not be
wrestling with decline. It will be helping the frustrated individuals and
nations left so far behind.
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